The Galactic Empire versus the Yuuzhan Vong

In some sections of the Star Wars fandom, there is this persistent and deeply unfortunate notion that the Empire was right. Maybe it's the fact that the bad guys get the cool uniforms. Maybe it's just that a lot of people who have never lived under an authoritarian government really believe that such a system is "more efficient". Either way, the Empire wasn't right. It wasn't efficient, either. It was tyrannical system that neither functioned in anything resembling a proper manner nor was even designed to do so. I have outlined this reality here and here, and I have described why authoritarian governments (of any sort) can't work out on a galactic scale here and here. Others have raised these arguments before me, often in far more detail.

And yet, the myth of the "good Empire" persists.

Personally, I blame Timothy Zahn. Not that he argued that the Empire was so great, but he did invent the character of Grand Admiral Thrawn, who over time morphed into the prototypical "good Imperial". What's more, in retconning things so that the villain he had invented was really a misunderstood hero all along, Zahn gave him a motivation that later became the argument in favour of the Empire supposedly having been right: a mysterious external threat. This eventually materialised in the form of the Yuuzhan Vong, and ever since, there have been people reasoning that Palpatine only did all the things he did in order to "prepare the galaxy for the coming invasion". (With the attached conclusion that if those dumb Rebels hadn't interfered, the Yuuzhan Vong would have been defeated much more efficiently.)

It's poppycock, plain and simple. Palpatine didn't care about the well-being of others in the slightest. We know what his actual goals were, and they involved annihilating all life in the galaxy as part of a Dark Side process to turn himself into an evil god. This is not a man who undertook his plans in order to save people. Protecting others from harm was never something Palpatine cared about even one bit. On the contrary! Suffering is good for the Dark Side, so it's in his interest to cause suffering. To the extent that Palpatine was interested in fighting any outside foes, it was because they were a threat to his power and to his plans. But that only went as far as wanting to be prepared for any potential conflict. In Palpatine's view, a war with the Yuuzhan Vong would be a good thing. He'd only want to prevent them from messing up his evil plans, but if they invade and cause lots of death and suffering, he'd actively welcome that. It would actually serve his purposes, just so long as his Empire didn't lose. (But, as I will argue, that wouldn't be a given at all.)

In any case, considering Palpatine's canonical motivations (meaning canonical in the original continuity), we know that his super-weapons were not intended to protect people. Rather, they were intended to defeat any and all enemies. (And they weren't any good at it, but that's a whole other point.) Palpatine seeking to prepare for something like the Yuuzhan Vong would not be a case of "protecting my people", and more along the lines of "don't touch my food". So much for the myth of the benevolent Empire.

That being said: if the Empire had not been overthrown, and had fought the Yuuzhan Vong (for purely selfish reasons)... how would that have gone? Is there any merit to the reasoning that this would have been better for the galaxy? Well, no, because the Empire was never going to have good intentions. But would it, all other things being equal, have resulted in a quicker victory against the Yuuzhan Vong? Well, also no. In fact, I sincerely doubt whether the Empire would have won at all. Because the Empire was terrible, and (as  have argued in a previous article) was designed as such. It was only ever going to get worse. Which means that if Palpatine had somehow managed to bloodily crush the Rebellion, the galaxy would have ended up in a bleak state of hopeless despair. Nothing to look forward to but endless oppression, with no way out.

And then the Yuuzhan Vong appear. They'd look like liberators to quite a few people. It doesn't have to be true: the mere fact that they're not Palpatine will suffice. Note that even when the Vong faced the New Republic, which was tolerant and peaceful, they were manipulative enough to get a whole fifth column to do their bidding. If the Empire was still in charge by the time they showed up, they'd have far more avenues of manipulation available. In fact, the people would be flocking to them in droves. Because even a pain-worshipping race of technophobic loonies is better than Palpatine's reign of terror. (Not to mention the fact that spies like Nom Anor were very good at making the prospects of siding with the Vong look far better than they really were.)

Palpatine would be facing defections across the board. Mass insurrections. Total chaos. And all he would have to bring to bear against it would be... brute force. By this point, the economy would be even more wrecked than it already was in 4 ABY, during the Battle of Endor. Simply put: if given twenty more years in power, Palpatine would have turned the galaxy into a giant North Korea. Morale would be minimal. Production for the war effort would be... mostly theoretical. The economy would be too wrecked to manage much of anything. The fleet would be vast, but already decaying: countless design flaws manifesting and short-sighted decisions coming back to be a bother. And fixing these issues would be far beyond the government's ability. Overall, the Empire's odds in facing the Vong wouldn't be good.

This means that Palpatine would have to rely on the thing he was rather obsessed with in the first place: his megalomaniacal array of super-weapons. The problem is that super-weapons are dumb. In the novel Destiny's Way, this is actually made explicit. An officer of the Imperial Remnant complains about the New Republic's (admittedly flawed) approach to dealing with the Yuuzhan Vong threat, and posits that the Empire would have done a better job:

"I can't help but wonder how the old Empire would have handled the crisis. I hope you will forgive my partisan attitude, but it seems to me that the Emperor would have mobilized his entire armament at the first threat and dealt with the Yuuzhan Vong in an efficient and expeditious manner through the use of overwhelming force. Certainly better than Borsk Fey'lya's policy—if I understood it correctly as a policy of negotiating with the invaders at the same time as he was fighting them, sending signals of weakness to a ruthless enemy who used negotiation only as a cover for further conquests."

Han responds to this astutely:

"That's not what the Empire would have done, Commander. What the Empire would have done was build a super-colossal Yuuzhan Vong-killing battle machine. They would have called it the Nova Colossus or the Galaxy Destructor or the Nostril of Palpatine or something equally grandiose. They would have spent billions of credits, employed thousands of contractors and subcontractors, and equipped it with the latest in death-dealing technology. And you know what would have happened? It wouldn't have worked. They'd forget to bolt down a metal plate over an access hatch leading to the main reactors, or some other mistake, and a hotshot enemy pilot would have dropped a bomb down there and blown the whole thing up. Now that's what the Empire would have done."

It's been argued that Han is hardly impartial. Well, neither are the Imperials who think that "More Death Stars!" would solve the problem. And Han has the evidence on his side, considering the Empire's track record when it comes to all those super-weapons:

— Death Star I? Blown up because of a design flaw.

— Death Star II? Blown up after the Emperor deliberately lured the Rebels there, even though it was unfinished. (Also, even before its destruction, it had already been hacked by IG-88A, and would've been turned against its creators if it hadn't been blown up in time.)

— Death Star Prototype? Destroyed because of a design flaw (no decent targeting system; error never fixed due to Imperial incompetence, even though they had nearly two decades to see to it).

— World Devastators? Destroyed because they could literally be hacked by a humble astromech droid, who then programmed them to destroy each other.

— Eclipse? Destroyed by Palpatine's own Force storm, because he got momentarily distracted by his enemies.

— Eclipse II? Destroyed because this weapon, too, could easily be hacked by an astromech droid.

— Galaxy Gun? Destroyed because it was clumsy and slow, and could be destroyed by smashing a ship into it. (In the process accidentally blew up Palpatine's own secret planet, too.)

— Sun Crusher? Stolen by a mentally disturbed teenager and then used to blow up one of the Imperials' own planets, before being dropped into a black hole.

In fact, the only vaguely effective super-weapon we ever saw was Centerpoint Station, which wasn't built by the Empire. Also, it didn't exactly work out against the Vong. And the Empire wouldn't have had Anakin Solo, and probably would have had someone just as stupid as Thrackan Sal-Solo running it, if Imperial hiring policy is any evidence... (Of course, Palpatine didn't even know about it, so the point is moot.) Bottom line: Imperial super-weapons were crud. A combination of critical design flaws and terminal stupidity on the part of Imperial leadership practically guaranteed failure at every turn. Which means there is quite a lot of merit to Han's argument. These things would not have been effective against the Yuuzhan Vong.

The underlying problem, of course, is more deeply interwoven into the whole Imperial approach: their tendency towards centrally-planned and centrally-imposed "solutions" leads to information deficits and bureaucratic errors. It's the same reason Thrawn ultimately lost: nobody knows everything, which is why one guy deciding everything is going to fuck up at one point. (Because there's something he ought to know, but doesn't, and he doesn't even know that he doesn't know it.) With unchecked bureaucracies (such as that of the Empire, having disbanded the Senate, after all), this problem is compounded exponentially as the bureaucracy gradually gets larger. A bureaucracy has been effectively described as "a beast with a thousand stomachs and zero brains". (That is: worse than one guy making all the decisions, you'll end up with nobody making effective decisions.)

We may safely assume that when the Rebels exploited that little design flaw in the Death Star to blow it up, that wasn't the only flaw. It was just the only one the Rebels could exploit on short notice, having only learned about the Death Star mere weeks before, and having only gotten the technical read-out a few days ago. And all Imperial super-weapons would have (and did have) serious flaws. As would their standard battle-ships et cetera. Then there's the fact that the Yuuzhan Vong had already sent infiltrators into the galaxy, who would gather all sorts of information to exploit (just as they did with the New Republic). So if the Yuuzhan Vong had invaded and Palpatine had still been in charge, odds are the Empire's super-weapons would have had several flaws, and the Vong would have exploited them mercilessly.

Even in a more general sense, it must be noted that Palpatine's doctrines were based on "what serves my Dark Side wizardry" and almost not at all on "what makes strategic sense". And in an equally general sense, the Empire's very organisational structure means that a figure like Nom Anor, at the right place, can do far more damage than would be possible under a system with all those "cumbersome" checks and balances of a democracy. Long story short: the Yuuzhan Vong would have mopped the floor with the Empire. So not only is the "benevolent Empire" myth pure nonsense, the "efficient Empire" myth is equally absurd.

Which brings us to the last refuge of the Imperial apologists: His Magnificent Blueness, Grand Admiral Thrawn. The argument then suddenly shifts: sure, Palpatine was bad, but normal authoritarianism is actually very efficient, and Thrawn understood that. If he had been in charge, that would have been the best possible outcome. And to that we can say: bullshit. Complete balderdash. Thrawn, too, was an incorrigible central planner, who genuinely believed that despotism was more efficient than a free society. (The old "fascism made the trains run on time" myth. Spoiler alert: it's not true.) There is no denying that Thrawn was far less horrible than Palpatine, but that doesn't make Thrawn good.

First of all, we have to note that Thrawn's characterisation changed over time, and in a way that made him more and more of a creator's pet. When we first encountered him, in the Thrawn Trilogy (which is chronologically his final appearance), he was was no more or less than an authoritarian with a cold personality but who was less "evil for the sake of it" than Palpatine. He wasn't shown as a sympathetic fellow. At best, one was left with the impression that his version of the Empire would be less randomly cruel. A "regular" authoritarian, then, instead of a fanatic who goes about committing atrocities simply because he can. But let's keep in mind that such "regular" authoritarians are, without fail, still deeply unpleasant.

In Zahn's later books, Thrawn gets retconned into a misunderstood, quasi-heroic figure. He was doing it all to stop a great (but very vague) threat to the galaxy! Of course, the Yuuzhan Vong were only really invented later. The Hand of Thrawn duology only hinted at 'great threats' out there in the Unknown Regions. Thrawn's motivations never even really got mentioned again in the NJO books. It was fans who apparently decided that because Thrawn had been building up the Empire of the Hand, he was doing it all to protect the galaxy from the Vong. That later worked its way back into the narrative, and Zahn just ran with it. His duology about the Outbound Flight project retcons Thrawn into a visionary leader who sees the danger ahead of time and joins up with the Empire because that's the only power big enough to give him the resources to set up a much-needed bulwark.

This argument goes wonky because said bulwark—the Empire of the Hand—totally fell apart before the Yuuzhan Vong even showed up, and didn't slow them down one bit. So was Thrawn actually a pretty poor strategist and was his plan a total failure? Evidence says "yes". Mostly because nothing Thrawn ever did or built could remain functional without Thrawn personally overseeing it. The predictable failure of the authoritarian approach!

So what can we say about Thrawn and his chances against the Yuuzhan Vong?

Well, let's accept it as a given that it really was his intent to serve the Empire purely to gain resources, which he needed to build up the Empire of the Hand in the Unknown Regions. This does not imply that we have to accept Zahn's latter-day retcons turning Thrawn into a supposed "good guy". We have irrefutable evidence that he was very much a villain, albeit not a needlessly cruel one. He voluntarily signed up to serve the Empire, knowing what a horrifying regime it was. After the Emperor and Vader were killed, and he learned of that development, his goal became to restore the Empire under his own rule. This was motivated by his belief that democracy is inferior, and that only a strong dictatorship could unite the galaxy.

Keep that in mind: Thrawn, even though his version of it may be less cruel, explicitly believes that something very much like the Empire is the best possible government. He also believes that the Empire under Palpatine (a.k.a. the worst possible government in existence, literally based on maximising sadism and suffering) is better than any form of democracy. Does that sound like a guy you'd want in charge of... anything at all?

But suppose we just don't get a choice. Thrawn simply wins in 9 ABY, and the New Republic is dismantled, and he somehow gets rid of Joruus C'Baoth, too. What happens then? Well, for starters, new Rebel organisations are going to be forming all over the place. Lots of people do not want the Empire back, even if the new Generalissimo promises that there's going to be less random acts of sadism and genocide this time. It's just... not very believable, you know? So that's one thorn in the new regime's side. It's not going to be smooth sailing. Thrawn can either wait out these new Rebels, and prove he's really better than Palpatine... or he can seek to crush them ruthlessly, in which case he'll be seen as... just as bad as Palpatine. Which will only cause more Rebel cells to emerge. (I think Thrawn would go for the latter approach, but it's a problem for him either way.)

The economy is still tanked, too. The New Republic enjoyed a moderate post-war economic miracle, because they just got rid of all the Palpatine-era bureaucracy and central planning, and allowed the galaxy-spanning free market to do its job. Thrawn, however, believed in central planning. So he'd be perpetuating at least a substantial segment of the Palpatine-era policies. Which means: no economic recovery. Enduring depression.

Granted, Thrawn was far, far less horrible than Palpatine. His approach would be more practical, so things would gradually get better. Being less crazy than Palpatine, he also knew super-weapons were stupid. So he'd presumably advocate for a larger, well-balanced Imperial navy to be (re-)constructed. But even with that, he'd run into inevitable problems: centrally-commanded efforts fail when the supreme boss makes a mistake— and as we know, Thrawn wasn't above mistakes. He got killed by his own body-guard, after all. He was never as all-knowing as he tried to make it seem.

Unfortunately, he did believe in his own myth. So he'd be operating under the assumption that all his decisions were the best possible ones. That's a set-up for failure. Again: the Empire of the Hand was a total bust when it came to its actual purpose. Okay, it would probably go better if Thrawn was there to ensure things went as he planned them. And Thrawn would be pretty much the uncontested ruler of the galaxy: if Palpatine could rule for twenty years, so could Thrawn. I can buy that if he decisively crushed the Republic, most people would just accept his rule and keep their heads down for a good long while. But he would be presiding over a galaxy in a deep economic depression, a navy that'd just been torn to shreds in the war, almost no public enthousiasm for his regime, consistent low-level insurgencies all over the place... and his own damn ego getting in the way of real efficiency.

He'd have fifteen years to re-build the fleet and to train up a new officer corps, so that's a plus. But let's look at everything Thrawn actually does in any work where he appears: he keeps all his secrets to himself, he ensures that he is the one in charge of everything, and as a result, even capable officers can't keep his plans working smoothly if he's not there. That's a terrible way to run a government! On top of this, Thrawn is a cocky bastard who thinks he's always right. He usually has more information than his enemies, and this makes him assume he is always the smartest man in the room. As we see, failure to be aware of one crucial detail can mess up your entire plan. and there's always something you don't know. Thrawn's method of running things is ultimately a big experiment in seeing how long it takes before Murphy's Law catches up to you. And it will catch up to you.

So, would he do well against the Yuuzhan Vong? Almost certainly not. He'd do better than Palpatine, and one might say that's something, at least. But when we look beyond the myth of Thrawn, and analyse his actual decisions and tendencies, there remains little doubt that he'd do worse against the Yuuzhan Vong than the New Republic did. Possibly much worse. Everything he'd be likely to do would lead to an inferior outcome than the one we actually ended up with. In fact, the best thing he could do to prepare the galaxy would be to provide as much warning as he possibly could, to offer his services as an advisor to a government that doesn't revolve around one person's will, and to end all the insane central planning measures so that the economy can get up and running again. (Note that the New Republic managed to churn out the whole New Class Modernisation Programme in a few short years.)

In short: the best thing Thrawn could have done for prepare for the Vong invasion was join the New Republic.

To him, that was unthinkable, and that's precisely why he wasn't so great as he believed himself to be. His own ego and his own love of authoritarianism got in the way of anything resembling good judgement. There is certainly a distinction to be made between a Palpatine and a Thrawn, but at the end of the day, they're both authoritarian thugs. Their way of doing things is fundamentally inferior to the operational level of a free society, which may be messier in the day-to-day, but which is ultimately far more dynamic. Authoritarianism is the creed of calcified minds. That kind may see their obsessively drilled troops win a lot of battles, but their campaigns of glorious victory tend to come to a stop somewhere. In places like Waterloo or Stalingrad... or Endor... Bilbringi...